Editor's Note

MR Perspectives is a twice-monthly newsletter that provides perspectives on market research topics of interest, best practices tips, emerging trends, quick case studies, and other useful information.

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Jan. 12-14, 2005    Miami, FL

Return on Marketing Investment Conference

The American Marketing Association is holding a Marketing Research Boot Camp for new marketing researchers at the Hyatt Regency on Town Lake in Austin, Texas.

Jan. 23-26, 2005    Rancho Mirage, CA

2005 Executive Insights Conference

The American Marketing Association will host its 2005 Executive Insights Conference, in which research leaders and marketing executives will share business insights, at the Rancho Las Palmas Marriott Resort & Spa in Rancho Mirage, CA.

Happy Holidays!

MR Perspectives will take a holiday hiatus and resume its regular bimonthly publication schedule on January 13, 2005.

Meanwhile, the staff of MR Perspectives and all of us at Polaris Marketing Research wish you a happy holiday season and a prosperous new year.

Cellular Do-Not-Call Registry

No one needs to conduct survey research to realize that most Americans have some level of familiarity with the federal Do-Not-Call list that was created to help prevent the spread of unsolicited telemarketing via traditional land-lines.  As discussed in past issues, it has been against the law to conduct unsolicited calls via cell phones for some time, with the general rational being that the cost (plan minutes) for the unsolicited call should not be forced upon the cell phone user. 

As a interesting aside, it has always been a fascinating phenomenon that mail surveys have not suffered the same fate as cell phone surveys, because whether it is realized or not, there are costs (direct garbage disposal fees/local taxes) for unreturned (typically 80-90 percent of total surveys mailed) surveys thrown into the garbage.  There are additional environment costs for producing survey forms and envelopes, printing and delivering surveys as well.  But since those costs are largely unseen and absorbed by those other than the consumer, mail surveying as a methodology has not met much resistance.  It is a curious fact that email spam (including email surveys) has gotten far more resistance and has led to the CAN SPAM Act, even though the hard costs are arguably less to the consumer compared to mail.

Since the costs for unsolicited cell phone calls are so apparent to both consumers and businesses, the negative reaction to cell phone surveying has been much more decisive.  One recent rumor that has concerned a number of cell phone users is the proposed publishing of a directory of cell phone numbers. The fear is that this will open the doors for all sorts of solicitors to call and use up their precious few minutes. Is the rumor true and do you need to register your cell phone with the federal Do-Not-Call registry?  The answer is yes and no. 

Six national wireless carriers have banded together in an effort to produce a Wireless 411 directory service. Their justification is that the service would save money for the 5 million customers who pay to have their cell phones listed, mostly because it is their primary telephone line at this point. The other justification is that just as with traditional land-line owners who decide not to be listed (approximately 28 percent nationally), cell phone users can opt to do the same.  Finally, since cell phone companies intend to only make the service available through operator service centers, this would significantly limit unscrupulous solicitors from acquiring cell phone numbers.  These certainly sound like very valid reasons for producing a cellular directory, but whether you agree is a matter of personal opinion.

So, while it appears certain that some sort of cell phone directory will eventually be produced, there is no reason to worry that your number will be sold to the unscrupulous soliciting masses so that they can call you on Sunday night during dinner.  But, just in case you want to go ahead and register your cell phone number with the Do-Not-Call registry anyway, check them out at https://www.donotcall.gov/default.aspx.

Listed vs. RDD Sampling

If you are a seasoned researcher, you likely know that even though the inferential statistics we use are based upon the assumption of probability samples, this assumption is routinely violated.  A probability sample is one in which it is possible to calculate the probability that any given person (element) will be selected. Whether conducting business-to-consumer or business-to-business marketing research, the key to being able to project the findings to the greater population is that, wherever possible, any one respondent is as likely to be chosen as any other.

While in some circumstances it may be necessary to set up quota groups and over sample a particular segment of particular importance (profitable customers), within that segment the same probability of being chosen should apply.  Many samples for business-to-business marketing research come from either customer or prospect lists that the sales and marketing department have on file.  Management of these lists can be very tricky, typically needing some level of sampling expertise. 

Where, you might ask, do sample management companies acquire telephone sample for general consumers?  The leading places are:

• Telephone directories

• Mail order buyers/subscribers

• Real estate information (deed & tax assessor)

• Voter registration

• Magazine subscription

• Surveys responses

These are great sample sources, but they exclude people who don't want to be listed and those that have recently moved, which can account for up to 50 percent of the consumer population. A potential bias is introduced when those listed may act, think and feel differently then those unlisted.

Random Digit Dial (RDD) sampling is an excellent way around the potential bias issues associated with listed sample.  An RDD sample company will generate random 4 digit numbers know as exchanges and will exclude 4 digit blocks that are know not to be assigned -- which is important as most blocks are unassigned.  As part of their business process, they periodically call through parts or all of the randomly produced active blocks, determining which numbers are "live" and delivering them to corporations and marketing research companies for projects requiring RDD sampling.

With over 108 million telephone households in the United States, approximately 30 percent with unlisted numbers, approximately 20 percent on the move annually and approximately 15 percent of the residential numbers in a typical directory disconnected, sample management can be challenging. Better sample management companies can help address representation issues with a variety of random digit list cleaning methodologies, which can go a long way toward delivering survey efficiency and results in fewer dialings, faster completion, and improved interviewer morale.

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